That might work, but it’s risky. Birds that have lived indoors their whole lives can very easily get lost if you let them outside. They may not even be able to find their way down from the nearest tree, let alone follow you across a border.
we provide… (uses skateboard as lever to tip park bench up on end, leaps to the top of it and from there to ledge on nearby building, runs along ledge until coming up perpendicular to next building, uses momentum to run ten feet straight up wall to land on all fours on roof) …leverage.
I think it doesn’t quite work, because to determine the accuracy of each individual 90%-chance prediction, you’d have to re-run that specific situation 10 times with all known variables the same, and see if it got the correct answer 9 times out of 10… which of course would be an impossible experiment. Percent-chance predictions really are unfalsifiable.
It’s odd that crossing fingers (at least in some cultures, such as mine) can mean either “good luck” or “I don’t have to keep the promise I’m making.” Maybe it’s an attempt to summon good luck in the endeavor of hiding one’s lie?